OK, here we go. It's finally here, the Super Bowl! The greatest game for the greatest sport in the world! The entire world will be watching. It's been a wild season and TOPBOSS is honored by those of you who've been tuning in. Tell you're friends, pass the word, 'cause next year's gonna' be very profitable for all of us.
Let's talk game. Looking at these teams from a distance, TOPBOSS is conflicted. The biggest edge TOPBOSS had was the fact that Pittsburgh does not match up well vs passing teams. Their front four stops the run and just can't seem to get to the QB. That was my edge going in. TOPBOSS absolutely loved the Packers. The Packers look like the pick here right? Aaron Rodgers....Destiny...all that? Problem. Everybody agrees. I'm guessing 80% of the public likes Green Bay. This is Vegas' biggest day of the year. More action takes place on Superbowl Sunday than all other NFL Sundays combined. They ain't gonna let you take the Packers without a price. That price is now 3 points. We've lost some value on the Packers.
So we've concluded that the Steelers are the value play here. Now we have to look at the facts. A super bowl team is getting 3 points. That's a nice thing to have. As TOPBOSS always says, any team in the playoffs is good and can win. So any team that's in the Superbowl can win, let alone cover.
TOPBOSS also must take into account the experience factor. Experience plays a major role in the championship game in any sport and the statistics are overwhelming for teams that have been there before. Let's count that as only a slight edge here because TOPBOSS doesn't see Aaron Rodgers slowing down whatsoever. But he ain't the only guy on the team. Let's give the Steelers +1 for experience.
Realistically, If you played this game 10 times, Green Bay would win 5 or 6 times. So basically, Green Bay is slightly better than 50/50. To TOPBOSS that's worth GB +1 point.
Finally, let's call it the TOPBOSS factor, as well as the reason you come here to the blog. TOPBOSS hears things. TOPBOSS has some very good info on both of these teams that he ain't allowed to share in detail. Let's just say that info is key in the information age. That's all I can say. Does that mean TOPBOSS has a lock. No. Definitely not. But before this info we were 50/50 and getting 3 points. This info moves it to about 70/30 Steelers to cover.
Finally, we don't even need the Steelers to win, just to cover. Remember, the public and experts like Aaron Rodgers and destiny and all that stuff. Well he can have all that and we can still take the money. How 'bout that?
Superbowl or not, TOPBOSS recommends that you only bet enough on this game to make it exciting but do not bet more than you can afford to lose. This is the Superbowl and edges are too hard to come by.
Now one more thing. Obviously TOPBOSS ain't gonna recommend any prop bets 'cause as we all know those are coin flips and just for fun. Personally, just for fun TOPBOSS is making the prop bet that Green Bay will score first, that it will be a touchdown, that it will be a pass, and that it will be to Kuhn. Just sayin. Lets have some fun.
TOPBOSS will however mention the total. If you MUST make a play, take the over. 45.5 is high, but normally when 2 good offenses play 2 good defenses, the offenses win. Besides, it has been the year of offenses and no defense.
Have fun everyone and we'll see you next year. It's been a pleasure to serve you. TOPBOSS is making the following plays for Super Bowl Sunday......
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 $440 (18%)
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